TicketsBy Bill Koch
GoBearcats.com
CINCINNATI – If you're looking for a light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel this fall for the University of Cincinnati football team, you need to look no further than the Bearcats' remaining schedule.
UC has lost five of its first seven games and hasn't held a lead at any time since the end of the Miami (Ohio) game on Sept. 16. But the five teams that have beaten the Bearcats have a combined record of 26-3. Three of them– Michigan, Central Florida and South Florida – are currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. Navy, which also beat UC, was ranked the week of Oct. 9, and is still receiving votes.
The Bearcats have faced the No. 1 and No. 3 rushing teams in the country in Navy and USF, and the No. 13 passing offense in UCF, plus the No. 1 and No. 4 teams (USF and UCF) in turnover margin.
UC coach Luke Fickell called it "a meat grinder" Tuesday during his weekly press conference and it's hard to argue with him. According to the Ratings Percentage Index, the Bearcats have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country. Only East Carolina, which has faced the third-toughest, has faced more formidable opponents than UC among American Athletic Conference members.
According to Chuck Sullivan, assistant AAC commissioner for communications, the RPI for football "might be less reliable than it is for basketball and baseball because there are so many fewer games/data points – so one game could make a significant swing in the numbers.
"But - since both ECU and Cincinnati have played USF and UCF, along with their other non-conference games, it stands to reason that their schedules would rate fairly high," Sullivan wrote in an email. "The other thing that hasn't necessarily helped UC is the number of games they have had where the opponent is coming off a bye. Navy had a scheduled open date prior to their game (against UC) a few weeks ago and SMU is coming off a scheduled bye for Saturdays' game. Cincinnati was also supposed to have a bye last week, but when the schedule was readjusted in the wake of the storms, they ended up playing USF last week – and USF was coming off a bye."
"We've had a run through it," Fickell said. "Hopefully we can learn from it. That's the thing, your ability to be able to thrive in those really tough situations and storms like we've had. Momentum and confidence and all those kinds of things are an even bigger factor than talent in this game. We need to find a way to not let what has happened in the beginning hinder us from continuing to grow regardless of who we have to play."
The good news for the Bearcats is that there are no more ranked teams on their schedule. Their five remaining opponents – SMU, Tulane, Temple, East Carolina and Connecticut - have a combined record of 13-19.
While that doesn't guarantee that the Bearcats will win any of those games, it certainly gives them a legitimate reason to believe they'll be more competitive than they've been against some of their opponents so far.
"We've already seen what people consider the best," said senior safety Carter Jacobs. "I think it's gonna prepare us for the rest of the season."
Fickell, who has spent most of his playing and coaching careers in the Big Ten, has discovered rather quickly that, in his opinion, the American plays at a higher level than the rest of the country gives it credit for.
"As a whole, in everything that I see, and I'm not just talking about specific teams, I mean talent-wise across the board, I'm impressed," Fickell said. "The last two weeks (in losses to UCF and USF) have given us the ability to sit down with our recruiting and our personnel sides and say, 'OK, we know our goal is to be the class of the league. How do we see ourselves moving forward and what do we need to do in this league?' There's a lot of depth in this league, there's a lot of talent in this league, a lot of good coaching in this league."
The schedule couldn't have set up any worse for a UC program coming off a losing season with a new coach trying to build his own culture. Perhaps if the Bearcats had played the last five opponents on their schedule during the first portion of the schedule they'd have a few more wins to show for their work and would head into the more difficult portion of their schedule with more confidence and momentum.
But of course it didn't work out that way. Coaches don't get to choose the order of their opponents. Besides, Fickell said, he hasn't spent any time pondering such things.
"We've got to look at it like adversity can do two things," Fickell said. "It can crush you or it can make you stronger. In this situation, we've got to use it to build strength - strength in our staff, strength in our program, strength in our kids. We're gonna learn a lot more about each other as a staff and as coaches and as players in these tough times."
Bill Koch covered UC athletics for 27 years – 15 at The Cincinnati Post and 12 at The Cincinnati Enquirer – before joining the staff of GoBearcats.com in January, 2015.
GoBearcats.com
CINCINNATI – If you're looking for a light at the end of what has been a very dark tunnel this fall for the University of Cincinnati football team, you need to look no further than the Bearcats' remaining schedule.
UC has lost five of its first seven games and hasn't held a lead at any time since the end of the Miami (Ohio) game on Sept. 16. But the five teams that have beaten the Bearcats have a combined record of 26-3. Three of them– Michigan, Central Florida and South Florida – are currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. Navy, which also beat UC, was ranked the week of Oct. 9, and is still receiving votes.
The Bearcats have faced the No. 1 and No. 3 rushing teams in the country in Navy and USF, and the No. 13 passing offense in UCF, plus the No. 1 and No. 4 teams (USF and UCF) in turnover margin.
UC coach Luke Fickell called it "a meat grinder" Tuesday during his weekly press conference and it's hard to argue with him. According to the Ratings Percentage Index, the Bearcats have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country. Only East Carolina, which has faced the third-toughest, has faced more formidable opponents than UC among American Athletic Conference members.
According to Chuck Sullivan, assistant AAC commissioner for communications, the RPI for football "might be less reliable than it is for basketball and baseball because there are so many fewer games/data points – so one game could make a significant swing in the numbers.
"But - since both ECU and Cincinnati have played USF and UCF, along with their other non-conference games, it stands to reason that their schedules would rate fairly high," Sullivan wrote in an email. "The other thing that hasn't necessarily helped UC is the number of games they have had where the opponent is coming off a bye. Navy had a scheduled open date prior to their game (against UC) a few weeks ago and SMU is coming off a scheduled bye for Saturdays' game. Cincinnati was also supposed to have a bye last week, but when the schedule was readjusted in the wake of the storms, they ended up playing USF last week – and USF was coming off a bye."
"We've had a run through it," Fickell said. "Hopefully we can learn from it. That's the thing, your ability to be able to thrive in those really tough situations and storms like we've had. Momentum and confidence and all those kinds of things are an even bigger factor than talent in this game. We need to find a way to not let what has happened in the beginning hinder us from continuing to grow regardless of who we have to play."
The good news for the Bearcats is that there are no more ranked teams on their schedule. Their five remaining opponents – SMU, Tulane, Temple, East Carolina and Connecticut - have a combined record of 13-19.
While that doesn't guarantee that the Bearcats will win any of those games, it certainly gives them a legitimate reason to believe they'll be more competitive than they've been against some of their opponents so far.
"We've already seen what people consider the best," said senior safety Carter Jacobs. "I think it's gonna prepare us for the rest of the season."
Fickell, who has spent most of his playing and coaching careers in the Big Ten, has discovered rather quickly that, in his opinion, the American plays at a higher level than the rest of the country gives it credit for.
"As a whole, in everything that I see, and I'm not just talking about specific teams, I mean talent-wise across the board, I'm impressed," Fickell said. "The last two weeks (in losses to UCF and USF) have given us the ability to sit down with our recruiting and our personnel sides and say, 'OK, we know our goal is to be the class of the league. How do we see ourselves moving forward and what do we need to do in this league?' There's a lot of depth in this league, there's a lot of talent in this league, a lot of good coaching in this league."
The schedule couldn't have set up any worse for a UC program coming off a losing season with a new coach trying to build his own culture. Perhaps if the Bearcats had played the last five opponents on their schedule during the first portion of the schedule they'd have a few more wins to show for their work and would head into the more difficult portion of their schedule with more confidence and momentum.
But of course it didn't work out that way. Coaches don't get to choose the order of their opponents. Besides, Fickell said, he hasn't spent any time pondering such things.
"We've got to look at it like adversity can do two things," Fickell said. "It can crush you or it can make you stronger. In this situation, we've got to use it to build strength - strength in our staff, strength in our program, strength in our kids. We're gonna learn a lot more about each other as a staff and as coaches and as players in these tough times."
Bill Koch covered UC athletics for 27 years – 15 at The Cincinnati Post and 12 at The Cincinnati Enquirer – before joining the staff of GoBearcats.com in January, 2015.